6 Reasons Why Trump Will Win (Yes, Really)

If you listen to the pundits, you might be in despair over the election.  But do you hear the fat lady singing?  I don’t either.  Here are 6 reasons why I believe President Donald Trump will win this election.

1. Polling:  Remember last Election Day when pollster Nate Silver posted a story called: “Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton?”  The Daily Wire has a good reminder of what happened the last time around:

Silver said his “forecast has Clinton favored in states and congressional districts totaling 323 electoral votes, including all the states President Obama won in 2012 except Ohio and Iowa, but adding North Carolina.” He hedged his bet a bit, though, saying Clinton could lose North Carolina or Florida, so “the average number of electoral votes we forecast for Clinton is 302.”

Clinton lost both (North Carolina by a lot, 3.8%). She also lost Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. In the end, she got crushed in the Electoral College, 304-227.

The polls in 2020 are nearly identical to those in 2016, according to Real Clear Politics, which keeps a running average of all polls.  

But not so fast.  Interestingly, Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly got it (mostly) right last time.

His group’s polling in 2016 showed Trump leading Clinton in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of the election. Trump won all three, despite most polls saying he would lose the states.

Now, Cahaly says Trump is poised to do it again and will top the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win re-election.

“I see the president winning with a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said recently on Fox News.

I’ve worked with “America’s Most Accurate Pollster” personally for the last several years.  We talk several times per day.  Cahaly knows the grassroots from a pollster’s perspective, and I know them personally.  We agree: the momentum is with Republicans.   

2. Anecdotally:  Trump is having huge, enthusiastic rallies all over the country, in all the important swing states.  Tens of thousands of people are showing up.  Trump Train Auto Rallies are occurring all over the country.  What?  You haven’t seen this?  That’s because — natch — there’s no media coverage. However, I’m getting the photographic proof sent to me every day.

3. Demographic Shift:  Polling on black and hispanic Americans looks like it’s swinging wildly towards Trump.  In the last week, Rasmussen Reports show support in the black community surging from 21% to 46%.  In the Hispanic community, we’re seeing ranges around 35%.  This could go as high as 50% in Florida and Arizona.

4. Youth Vote:  Democrats always predict a large youth turnout.  Other than for President Obama in ‘08 and ‘12, they don’t materialize.  Younger people vote in lower percentages.  This year, expect even lower.  Colleges are turnout machines for younger voters.  With most colleges on lockdown, and many students online from home, the turnout push on campuses will be non-existent.  This means that the youth turnout will likely be even lower than usual.  That plays against the Democrats.

5.   Lockdowns: Trump has trouble with suburban women.  He’s rough, crass, and often rude.  They don’t like him, and he gives them reason to feel that way.  But, at this point there is an undercurrent rising that tells me: the only thing they like less than Trump is the lockdown.  They want — and many of them actually need — their kids back in school.  Trump repeatedly talks about opening things up. Biden and the Democrats are calling for more lockdowns.  In the debate, when pushed, Biden refused to rule out further lockdowns.  This isn’t playing well with average people, including suburban women.

6. Election Day Favors Republican Turnout: Voters like me like to vote on Election Day. There’s something magical about standing in line with your fellow citizens, waiting to cast your vote.  Republican turnout will dominate in the several days before and on election day itself.

Which leads me to — drumroll, please….

Trump will win the election with a minimum of high 270’s in the Electoral College.  The Republicans will retain the Senate, and the Democrats will retain the House. 

There you have it… the prediction I always refuse to make.  Hey why not?  Right now, I’m as right as anyone else.  

On Election Day, the fat lady will sing… but it won’t be for Trump.

Image Credit: WITA